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I've started putting together a collection of information and my thoughts about the 2007 Federal Election.

Despite the recent opinion polls, it looks really hard for the ALP to win. Really, really hard. To give you a sense of how hard it will be, one of the seats that would have to fall would be John Howard's seat of Bennelong.  

So far I've put together an introductory page (link at the top of this blog entry) a Pendulum for the House of Representatives and profiles for most of the most marginal Coalition seats.

One of the news stories today is about the fact that John Howard's seat is at risk. (Link to my summary of the seat.)  Darn. I wrote about that last night, but didn't tell anybody about it until this morning, after the Morgan Poll done for Crikey had been released. Here's the ABC News story on the poll.


A list of coalition seats that would have to fall if there were a swing to Labor:
Seat (with links to my commentary) 2 Party Margin Comments
Kingston (SA) 50.07% 0.07% The most marginal Coalition seat
Bonner (Qld) 50.51 0.51
Greenway (NSW) 50.58 0.58
Wakefield (SA) 50.67 0.67
Makin (SA) 50.93 0.93
Braddon (Tas) 51.13 1.13
Hasluck (WA) 51.82 1.82
Stirling (WA) 52.04 2.04
Eden-Monaro (NSW) 52.14 2.14
Bass (Tas) 52.63 2.63
Solomon (NT) 52.81 2.81
Moreton (Qld) 54.17 4.17
Page (NSW) 54.23 4.23
Bennelong (NSW) 54.33 4.33 Prime Minister's Seat
Hinkler (Qld) 54.81 4.81
Deakin (Vic) 54.97 4.97 The seat that would deliver government to the ALP in an even swing




In practice the swing won't be even. Some of these seats will remain with the Coalition, and possibly some safer Coalition seats will fall to Labor.



If you have thoughts/comments/information about the election, either add them as comments to this blog, or email me on 2007FederalElection@anthonyholmes.com

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Anthony Holmes February 19th, 2007 09:39:09 AM

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