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Press Refresh/F5 to see updates to this blog as the NSW election unfolds

5:52pm: Eight minutes until the NSW polls close. I'll be posting the occasional entry as the count proceeds. I'll be watching the NSW Electoral Commission site and listening to ABC News Radio.

I'm hoping that the NSW Electoral Commission will be posting results using Election Markup Language... a standard used for Australian and Victorian elections. If they are, it will be worth my while developing a system for displaying results in future elections.

6:00pm Polls close (I presume. I'm not even in NSW, so I'm just taking it for granted that the polls have closed on time. I'm guessing there are still a couple of people scribbling on ballot papers at this moment.)

6:02pm ABC News Radio had developed an echo: like it's broadcasting in a large room. Surely they aren't reading the news from within the ABC's Tally Room? (I might switch to the TV coverage.)

6:09pm No results yet. :-)  So: Will the ALP get a cricket team? 11 members? Or will they get as many as 22? Will the Greens win any seats? And how completely with the far right be able to control the Legislative Council?

6:25pm Multiple reports that few voters were taking How to Vote cards. Those comments, together with the fact that the polls didn't vary during the campaign suggests to me that very soon after the last election the NSW electorate made up its mind that it was time for the NSW ALP to be thrown out.

6:30pm Kerry O'Brien "Trying to summarise their [the ALP's] various crises would take too long."

Antony Green suggests a 14-16% swing.

6:34pm From the Department of Ridiculous Early Results: The National Party has 92.8% of the votes counted in Burrinjuck. Based on a count of 69 votes.

6:36pm Even the ALP panelist (MLC Luke Foley) on the ABC TV Coverage admits the ALP won one term too many.

6:38pm When an election result is a foregone conclusion, the point of interest becomes: Who gets the greatest swing against them, and who manages to resist the swing most successfully?  That will show you who the best and worst campaigners are (and the effect of local issues).

6:42pm ALP Computer tries to make a prediction (ALP Hold) on Monaro based on a bit more than 100 votes. (!) Antony Green concedes that's a bit too eager.  Overall a massive swing of 16% Statewide".

6:44pm Kerry O'Brien "I guess we called [this election result] from the outset". So I guess that's a record: the ABC reckons it called the result in the first minute, at 6pm.  

6:45pm A point of trivia: Antony Green has long wanted to run Election coverage from ABC Studios, but various Election Commissions have continued running Tally Rooms. AG got frustrated when the network connection dropped out during the Victorian Election in 2010. No such problems tonight: they're broadcasting from the ABC studios in Ultimo. They're calling it the "Election Centre".

6:55pm Sadly I can't find any evidence of EML results being posted in the NSW election. Hopefully they'll be doing it by 2015.

6:58pm The NSW State Election iPhone App is useful but annoying. Even though the polls have closed and I'm looking for results, it keeps telling me "Polling Place Warning - Sorry there is no polling place near your location". Yes, that's because I'm in Melbourne. But it's hardly relevant, since I'm using the application to look at results.

7:21pm The perils of automated computer systems: NSW Electoral Commission wrongly predicted that the fight in Newcastle would be between Libs and an independent, but the independent isn't doing well. Antony Green needs to force his new election system to not follow the NSWEC's lead.

7:24pm Luke Foley: You'll forgive me for getting excited by seats with swings of less than 10%.

7:28pm The ABC traditionally sends cameras out to the electorates of a number of candidates to get them to give comments on winning or losing. Clearly they can't get to every candidate... they can pop around to a fair number of city candidates, but presumably they need to pick and choose between country seats. (Remember how they had trouble getting all three of the country independents during the last Federal Election?) Presumably candidate input will become a lot more dynamic when everybody has easy access to a high definition camera and good network connectivity: such as what an NBN and/or 4G would provide?

7:33pm ABC projection is currently 11 - a cricket team... but there are 19 still in doubt, so they may yet be able to field an Aussie Rules team.

7:37pm Strathfield 8% of the vote counted, with a 29.9% swing to Liberals. (I wonder how typical the booths that have been counted are of the electorate?)

7:44pm Antony Green: "It would just be breathtaking [for the Liberals to win Newcastle]".

7:46pm There are 11 seats where the ALP vote is under 10%. It has always been true that there are a few polling booths where 9 out of 10 people vote one way: but for those proportions to hold up across an entire electorate of almost 50,000 people... 11 electorates, is astonishing.

8:00pm "They [the right] haven't won Newcastle since the late 1890s". A swing of 23-27%.

8:03pm Trivia: John Howard's first tilt at Parliament was in Drummoyne.. in 1968, but it took until 2011 for it to fall to the Liberals.  John Sidoti, "When the member switches off" the voters turn hostile.

John Sidoti, successful Liberal Candidate for Drummoyne with what may be the quotation of the night: "I've run out of clothes door knocking so many houses". What was he doing at those houses he was visiting?!

8:13pm Presumably the use of Optional Preferential Voting in New South Wales magnifies a swing when the existing government is on the nose. There must be a bunch of people who decided to vote for Greens and Independents - leftwards - rather than supporting the ALP who would have directed second (or later) preferences to the ALP in preference rather than going - rightwards- to the Lib/Nationals. With Optional Preferential Voting, their vote disappears if their Green/Independent candidate doesn't get up.

8:21pm Green results still up in the air: they might win 2 seats and be considered to have done well, or they might end up with 0 and be considered to have done badly. All based on a few thousand votes one way or the other.

8:28pm Luke Foley "It's grimmer than grim. The Liberal camp couldn't believe their eyes [and so played down their expectations how many seats they would win". Gladys Berejiklian (Liberal) "That's true".

8:35pm A big night for fisher-folk. Shooters and Fishers Party 6.45% in the Legislative Council and The Fishing Party 1.43%.

8:37pm Monaro "an absolute line ball" - which is interesting, because seats with much wider margins have easily fallen to the ALP.

8:42pm The polls slightly underestimated the ALP vote (but that's not much consolation for them, as their number of members has halved). ABC Computer predicting 22 ALP seats: so that's an Aussie rules team with a full set of four reserves.

8:51pm Greens unlikely to win in Marrickville. So it's either 1 or 0 seats for the Greens. This goes to show the importance to the Greens of getting as many Liberal votes as possible. The Liberals didn't direct any preferences in Marrickville, and the Greens candidate is likely to pick up fewer preferences from the Libs based on her participation in a Council vote to ban products from Israel.

If the Greens don't find a way to win over conservative voters (think "Doctor's Wives" and "Liberals for Forests") they're going to have trouble becoming more mainstream.

9:00pm Quentin Dempster doesn't quite ask the right follow up question. "How green are you?" he asks the Liberal Candidate in Balmain.  "I'm Liberal to the core" the candidate doesn't answer. But given that the Liberals are split down the middle between Climate Deniers and people who rationally accept the reality of Climate Change but disagree on how to address it... he should have been asked where he stood: Denier or not?.

9:03pm  Kristina Keneally "People of NSW didn't leave us, we left them".

9:09pm A confusing small cheer when Kristina Keneally said she would not remain as leader. Rude? or were they just expecting her to say something else? I'm not sure: out of a team of only 22 members, how many better candidates do they have for leader?

9:31pm Big swings: Riverstone 31.2%; Bathurst 36.8%... I wonder what the ALP candidates were like in those seats?

It sounds bizarre that Parramatta has fallen to the Liberals. ABC TV Panelist Gladys Berejiklian (Liberal) says there was a dirty campaign from the ALP in Parramatta. (If true that satisfies my obsession that people who run dirty campaigns deserve to do badly.)

9:35pm Antony Green "Everything from the Hawkesbury to the Hunter has fallen"... a long swathe of the Central Coast (where I was born). This is, of course, the area where the Iguana Joes farce happened.

9:50pm Monaro nobly manages to remain a seat of the centre: instead of getting a 20+% swing it has only a 7% swing that leaves it 51.1% to the Nationals.

10:00pm Barry O'Farrell Victory Speech.

10:11pm Ok: it's all over bar the rest of the counting: will there be any Greens in the Legislative Assembly (probably no?) and what will the Legislative Council look like (it's hard to tell this soon). The swing is shown as 16.7% based on 66.7% counted.

End of NSW Election Blog entries. Goodnight!


Comments (0)
Anthony Holmes March 26th, 2011 05:48:41 PM

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