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With no (significant) science, I present a new poll indicator.

I name it the MM Index.

I won't reveal my secret source, but some of you might be able to work it out. For most of you it'll be a mystery. It's the range of views across a family. (Not mine.)

Under the MM Index, the Howard victory in 2004 was predicted by a ratio of 5 : 3 (Coalition : ALP).

As of today, the MM Index predicts a Howard loss of 2 : 5 (Coalition : ALP).

The MM Index is built from a small collection of people, whose de facto political positions range from Genghis Khan to Mao Tse Tung the National Party to the Democrats/Greens. In the run up to the 2007 election, quite a number are switching their votes from the right (the Nationals and Libs) to the ALP.

Separately, I've heard a resident of a (Victorian) country town stating that "Howard's been in too long". Time for the Coalition to start running some polls in safe country seats?

Maybe. But the info on this posting is outrageously anecdotal. If my source tells me that it changes between now and election day, I'll let you know.

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Anthony Holmes September 24th, 2007 07:45:41 PM

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