The final results are now in: the Australian Electoral Commission has now declared all of the House of Representatives seats in the 2007 election. The ALP won 83 seats.

I asked a group of friends to make predictions on the result of the election six weeks out and again on the night of the election. Here are their predictions:

2007 Election Predictions

The bright red bars indicate how many picked a number of ALP seats six weeks out. The darker red bars show how they picked it on the night of the election before the count started.

The conclusion? Well, the positive view is that everybody picked the result to within plus or minus ten seats. The negative view is that only one person managed to pick the result. On the night of the election I relied upon the ABC computer's predictions and gave a bottle of champagne to the person who matched the ABC's end of night prediction of 86 seats. But I think that I now owe a bottle to the real political pundit of the night who picked the eventual result of 83 seats: Congratulations Annemarie!  

Two thirds of the predictions were for a smaller ALP margin, which indicates we were a fairly conservative bunch.

(By the way: my predictions were: 6 weeks before the election: ALP to win 80 seats. Night of the election: 79 seats. Close-ish, but definitely no banana.)

And, by way of explanation, the heading on this blog entry refers to the fact that many of my more politically tragic friends gathered at our place on election night to watch the count. And to prove my nerdishness, I had created a series of A5 sized descriptions for each of the marginal seats (who was running in the seat, local scandals, interesting trivia etc.). As the seats were decided, we stuck them up onto the side of our staircase in the order that they had swung to the ALP, and counted them down until the ALP won. The staircase was christened The Stairway to Kevin.

(Also known as Howard's End.)



Comments (1)
Anthony Holmes December 20th, 2007 09:46:56 PM

1) Stairway to Kevin...
Michael 8/01/2008 3:53:01 PM

Thanks Anthony and Dennis for hosting such a fine party, and indeed what a great night it was! Finally, after sitting through so many of your Election Parties glumly watching John Howard and the Coalition win (although I do remember the 1998 one being close enough to at least be entertaining), it was just such a thrill to be there when they lost so comprehensively! Howard losing his seat was probably the icing on the cake, but the sheer sense of joy many of us had at the possibilities ahead was also a fantastic moment to be part of. I will definitely recall this Election Night Party with great fondness, and also want to congratulate you on all of your organisation - your Stairway to Kevin was just inspired!



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