The only count that matters in an election is the one that happens after the polls close.

But in the lead up to an election there are many ways of trying to guess the results.

Some methods involve asking people who ought to know: for example, looking at the betting market, where most bets are placed by people who think they've got some idea of the result.

Some methods involve asking people who haven't the faintest idea. (That's how opinion polls work.)

(As far as I know, nobody examines chicken entrails to predict Australian elections.)

A month ago, I gave my MM index, based upon the (guessed) opinions of one reasonably large family. It predicts an ALP victory. It's a more valid predictor than chicken entrails, but not by much.

I'll now throw another prediction into the mix. About a week ago, I asked a group of friends to make an election prediction. These predictions were made in the first couple of days of the election: some prior to the release of the tax policies, some after. All were made before the Leaders' Debate. The people making predictions are a mix that ranges from political tragics through to plain normal people.  

I've now collated their predictions.

With the exception of one eccentric prediction of a hung Parliament, everybody seems to be plumping for an ALP win. There's a strong clumping between 79-84 seats. The person who predicted 90 clearly believes that when a swing is on, it is really on.

Come election night, we'll see if the predictions of 79-84 ALP seats are 'group think' or 'political savvy'.

Image:Straw Polls

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Anthony Holmes October 22nd, 2007 05:59:55 PM

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